Global warming to go into reverse?

The BBC reports today on a new scientific study that purports to show that changes in the Sun's output cannot be causing modern-day climate change.

The study has been carried out by Mike Lockwood, from the UK's Rutherford-Appleton Laboratory, together with Claus Froehlich from the World Radiation Center in Switzerland.

Their main argument is that, in the last 20 years, the Sun's output has declined while temperatures on our planet have continued to rise.

While the authors concede that most of the 20th Century saw a slight but steady increase in solar output, and even that cosmic rays may have affected our climate in the past, they point out that in about 1985 that trend appears to have reversed and solar output started to decline.

'Small' detail missing

However, what they don't acknowledge is that the temperature effects of solar radiation have been shown to lag, one big reason being the time it takes for the heat from the sun, or lack of, to affect the temperature of our oceans.

So the influence on Earth's temperatures from the declining solar output this study highlights may in fact take considerably longer to become apparent in temperature changes.

In essence, Lockwood is drawing his conclusions prematurely.

So far from "settling the debate", as Lockwood rather arrogantly hopes, what he may have in fact revealed in this study is not that global warming is man-made, but a looming cooling trend.

Once again, far from an excuse for politicians to heap excessive financial burdens on hard-pressed car users.